We have written quite a bit about the demographic crisis that will hit the United States in 2030. In summary, there are 40 million or more baby boomers that will all hit age 65 in 2030 and we expect most of these to retire while a few many continue working beyond but what we haven’t written about a great deal is the other end of the spectrum: young people.
How do young people feel about the current system? Well, based on our readings on websites such as Reddit /r/antiwork and /r/workreform, it doesn’t seem that many view the current economic/capitalist system as something they want to be a part of for the rest of their lives. Many people in these forums want the entire system reformed including eliminating the “billionaire class” and unionization of most jobs in the hopes of freeing them from their misery.
But that doesn’t represent the entire spectrum of young people, on the other end of the youth spectrum are those that want /r/FatFIRE to set them free of misery as well even though this group generally has high paying jobs.
The online forum subreddit r/fatFIRE is filled with people discussing investments, sharing tips, and telling stories of getting FatFIRED—the day when they retire in their 30s or 40s after having stockpiled millions of dollars in liquid and illiquid investments.
Fortune.com
Whether we look at the ‘antiwork’ crowd or the ‘fatfire’ crowd, the net result is the same, neither group wants to accept the status quo of the current system where an individual works from 20 thru to 65 only to retire with 15 years at best to enjoy life. Both groups often view the sacrifices that their boomer parents and grandparents made too costly to be worth the benefits.
If we combine large number of boomer retirements with young people that have little or no intention of working their entire life we will find ourselves in a situation where no one will literally do any work at a time when infrastructure is crumbling, there are labor shortages everywhere and there is no labor solution plan at any level. Tragically, we aren’t anywhere near seeing millions of boomers exiting the labor force yet and it is already painful for many businesses.
Accordingly, we expect any business dependent on large amounts of cheap labor will fail. We expect many of these business failures to begin in 2025 when boomer retirements begin accelerating. There will be plenty of investment opportunities for companies that can manage a way to higher and retain labor.
In the meantime, stay tuned and stay solvent…