Daily Brief: Jobless Claims Plunge to 208K as Soft Landing Narrative Gains Steam
Initial jobless claims fell to 208K, crushing the 216K forecast, while retail sales cooled to just 0.2% growth. Philly Fed manufacturing surged to 41.4.
Daily Brief: Social Security’s Clock Just Moved Forward — Six Years to a 22% Benefit Cut
The OASI trust fund will be empty by Q4 2032 — a quarter sooner than last year’s projection. Here’s what the $31 trillion shortfall means for every...
Daily Brief: PPI Posts First Drop in 10 Months as Energy Rout Cools Wholesale Prices
Producer prices fell 0.3% in June — the first monthly decline since July 2022 — as collapsing energy costs dragged wholesale inflation lower. But...
Daily Brief: CPI Plunges to 3.5% as Energy Prices Collapse — Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2020
CPI fell 0.4% in June, the steepest decline since April 2020, with headline inflation dropping to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core prices were flat. Energy was the...
Daily Brief: The Participation Puzzle — Workers Keep Quitting While the Labor Force Keeps Shrinking
June payrolls added just 57K jobs, yet quits hit 3.07M and participation fell to 61.5%. The structural labor shortage isn't going anywhere.
Daily Brief: CPI Week Kicks Off as Brent Tops $78 and Powell’s Testimony Looms
The most consequential week of summer: June CPI drops Wednesday, Powell testifies 90 minutes later, and Brent crude tops $78 on renewed Iran strikes. Here's what to watch.
Daily Brief: Wage Growth Hits 4.8% as Fed’s Inflation Puzzle Gets Harder
Atlanta Fed wage growth hit 4.8% in June — double the level consistent with 2% inflation — putting the Fed's rate-cut timeline in serious jeopardy ahead of next week's CPI…
Daily Brief: Claims Hold at 215K, But Consumers Pull Back as Iran Strikes Send Oil Surging
Jobless claims beat expectations at 215K, but consumer credit rolled over and the trade deficit exploded to $77.6B — all while US airstrikes on Iran...
Daily Brief: Markets Brace for Hawkish Fed Minutes as Trade Gap Blows Out
Trade deficit hits $77.6B, oil surges on Iran ceasefire collapse, and the most consequential FOMC minutes in years drop at 2 p.m. — here's what to watch.
Daily Brief: Trade Deficit Widens to $105.8B as AI Imports Surge, Services Employment Rebounds
The U.S. goods trade deficit surged 27% to $105.8B on AI-related imports. ISM Services employment rebounds from contraction. Dow tops 53,000. Inflation...