Daily Brief: Wage Growth Cools to 0.8% — Real Paychecks Shrink as Inflation Outruns Workers
The Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% in Q3, matching forecasts and cooling from 0.9%. But real wages fell 0.6% as 3.7% CPI eats the raise — especially...
Daily Brief: GDP Surges 3.4% But Inflation Holds Firm — The Fed’s Boxed In
Q3 GDP blew past expectations at 3.4%, but September PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6%. A day after the Fed held rates, the data confirms: no cuts...
Daily Brief: Trade Deficit Widens to $134.9B as Fed Prepares to Hold — Election Looms
The U.S. goods trade deficit hit $134.9B in September as imports surged. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady today, but a December hike remains on...
Daily Brief: FOMC Kicks Off as Durable Goods Orders Surge — But Business Investment Is Cooling
Durable goods orders jumped 1.8% in September, but a surge in aircraft orders drove the headline. Core business investment is slowing as the Fed's...
Daily Brief: 7.1 Million Job Openings, 349,000 Missing Construction Workers — The Structural Labor Shortage Isn’t Budging
The U.S. has 7.1M job openings against 7.1M unemployed — a fragile equilibrium masking acute shortages in construction, manufacturing, and healthcare.
Daily Brief: Fed Decision, Q3 GDP, and PCE — The Week That Sets the Table for 2026
Fed decision, Q3 GDP, and PCE inflation all land this week. Markets expect a rate hold Wednesday — the real story is what Chair Warsh signals for December.
Daily Brief: Businesses Expand, Consumers Retreat — The Great October Divergence
American businesses kept expanding in October while consumers sank to near-record gloom. Flash PMIs and Michigan sentiment painted opposing pictures.
Daily Brief: Jobless Claims Drop to 194K — Labor Market Shrugs Off Oil Shock
Initial claims fell to 194,000, beating the 200K consensus and hitting the lowest since July. Employers are holding on despite $111 oil and a widening war.
Daily Brief: American Paychecks Are Shrinking — Real Wages Fall as Inflation Outpaces Earnings
BLS data shows median weekly earnings rose just 1.5% in Q3 while CPI gained 3.5%. Seasonally adjusted wages dropped from Q2. The paycheck is bigger,...
Daily Brief: Housing Starts Slide for Third Straight Month as Builder Confidence Hits 14-Year Low
Housing starts fell 5.2% to 1.221M in September — a third straight decline — while builder confidence crashed to a 14-year low of 29. The housing...