Daily Brief: Trading Partner Inflation Check — July/August 2026
Six of nine US trading partners saw inflation decline as the Iran-war energy shock fades. The US rate fell to 3.4% but competitive pressure from...
Daily Brief: Social Security’s OASI Fund Runs Dry in 2032 — Six Years to a 22% Cut
Social Security turned 91 with six years to go: OASI's depletion date moved up to Q4 2032, leaving a $270B cash deficit and a 22% cut looming.
Daily Brief: Consumers Slam the Brakes — Retail Sales Drop 0.6%, Sentiment Crashes to 51.0
Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July and Michigan consumer sentiment crashed to 51.0 in August — the consumer engine is sputtering.
Daily Brief: PPI Flatlines in July as Inflation Cooling Gains Momentum
Producer prices were unchanged in July, missing the 0.2% consensus and confirming the inflation cooldown that CPI hinted at a day earlier. Markets now...
Daily Brief: CPI Cools to 3.4% — September Rate Hike Odds Collapse
CPI eased to 3.4% in July as shelter costs finally decelerated. Markets slashed September rate hike odds to 42%. The Fed just got the breathing room it...
Daily Brief: Main Street Shrugs Off the Jobs Report — Small Business Optimism Surges to 99.8
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to 99.8 in July, beating consensus by 2.3 points. Hiring plans hit a four-year high — just days after the...
Daily Brief: 61.4% — The Vanishing American Worker and the Participation Crisis Nobody Can Fix
The labor force shrank by 264,000 workers in July while 7.4M job openings sit unfilled. The participation rate hit 61.4% — a near 5.5-year low. This...
Daily Brief: Small Business Hiring Plans Surge 9 Points — Main Street Defies the July Payrolls Miss
NFIB July Jobs Report shows small business hiring plans surging 9 points to 20%, defying Friday's BLS payrolls miss. S&P 500 at all-time highs. CPI...
Daily Brief: Payrolls Fall by 23,000 in July — Massive Consensus Miss as Revisions Erase 103K From Spring
U.S. employers cut 23,000 jobs in July when economists expected an 85,000 gain. With 103K in downward revisions to May and June, the labor market is...
Daily Brief: Jobless Claims Stay Below 200K as Layoffs Hit Two-Year Low — Labor Market Holds Firm Into Jobs Friday
Initial jobless claims rose just 1,000 to 199,000, beating expectations, while layoffs hit a two-year low. The labor market holds firm heading into...