Daily Brief: Warsh’s First Jackson Hole Keynote Looms as Claims Slip to 203K and Bond Stress Mounts
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote lands Friday, with inflation at 3.4%, the 30-year at 5.31%, and claims at 203K.
Daily Brief: Corporate Profits Surge $400.9B as GDP Holds at a Tepid 1.5%
Q2 GDP held at 1.5%, but corporate profits surged $400.9B and inflation was revised up to 5.3% — a tricky setup for Warsh at Jackson Hole.
Daily Brief: Consumer Confidence Slips to 89.4 as Home Sales, Manufacturing Join the Pullback
Consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August while new home sales cratered to 607K and Richmond Fed manufacturing slipped. A day of misses across the board.
Daily Brief: Payrolls Go Negative as 7.4M Openings Sit Unfilled — the Labor Shortage Isn’t Going Anywhere
July payrolls went negative for the first time in years while 7.4M job openings went unfilled. The labor shortage is a supply problem, not demand.
Daily Brief: Oil Drops as Bessent Prepares Iran ‘Economic D-Day,’ But This Week’s Real Fireworks Are Still to Come
Oil slides ahead of Bessent's Iran speech, CFNAI turns negative, and a monster week looms: PCE, GDP, Nvidia earnings, and Jackson Hole all hit within...
Daily Brief: Services PMI Surges to 56.8, Lifting Composite to 52-Month High as Factory Sector Loses Steam
S&P Global's August flash PMI showed services surging to 56.8 (20-month high) while manufacturing slipped to 53.2. The composite hit 56.0 — a 52-month...
Daily Brief: Philly Fed Surges to 47.4, Blowing Past Consensus as Factory Sector Defies Recession Fears
Philly Fed manufacturing index surges to 47.4 against a 24.1 consensus — a massive beat that challenges the recession narrative. Plus: jobless claims...
Daily Brief: Bond Rout Pauses as Markets Brace for Hawkish FOMC Minutes
Treasury yields retreat from 19-year highs ahead of FOMC minutes that could reveal deep division — three officials already dissented in favor of hiking...
Daily Brief: Housing Starts Crash 12.4% as High Rates Freeze the Jobsites
Housing starts cratered 12.4% in July to 1.239M, missing estimates by a mile. But permits surged 5%. Import prices fell 0.4%, adding a disinflation twist.
Daily Brief: Empire State Manufacturing Surges to 20.6, Crushing Estimates as Factory Optimism Returns
NY Fed's Empire State index hits 20.6 in August, nearly double the 11 consensus. New orders and backlogs surge as factory executives turn bullish for...