On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics told us American employers cut 23,000 jobs in July — the first negative payroll print since 2020. This morning, the National Federation of Independent Business told us something that sounds like it came from a different universe: Main Street business owners are gearing up to hire at a pace not seen in years.
The NFIB’s July Jobs Report, released today, shows plans to increase employment surging 9 points to 20% — nearly double the June reading of 11%. Job openings at small firms rose 4 points to 36%, meaning more than a third of Main Street businesses have positions they can’t fill. Actual compensation increased to 31% of firms reporting raises, up 3 points, as owners compete for workers in what still looks, from their vantage point, like a tight labor market.
The Contrast Is the Story
How do you reconcile a 23,000-job loss — Friday’s headline number that sent a chill through markets before the weekend rally — with small business owners telling surveyors they’re about to go on a hiring spree? The NFIB surveys its members — businesses with fewer than 500 employees, the backbone of American employment — during the same month the BLS is counting paychecks. Both datasets describe July. Both paint wildly different pictures.
Or maybe they can coexist. The NFIB captures sentiment: what owners plan to do, what they see at their own shop counters. The BLS captures what actually happened on payroll ledgers. The gap between the two — optimism crashing into reality — might be the most honest snapshot of this economy right now. Small businesses want to hire. Something is stopping them.
The Numbers
- NFIB Plans to Increase Employment: 20% in July, up from 11% in June — a 9-point surge (source: NFIB Jobs Report, Aug 10, 2026)
- NFIB Job Openings: 36% of small firms, up 4 points from June (source: NFIB)
- Actual Compensation Increases: 31% of firms, up 3 points — owners are paying up to attract workers (source: NFIB)
- BLS Nonfarm Payrolls (July): -23,000 vs. +12,000 consensus — the first negative print since 2020 (source: BLS, Aug 7)
- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage: 6.69% as of Aug 6 (source: Freddie Mac); Bankrate shows 6.76% today
- S&P 500: Closed at 7,753.78 on Aug 10, a fresh all-time high — up for a seventh straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth (source: Yahoo Finance / WSJ)
What to Watch This Week
The marquee release is Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index for July. Consensus expects headline inflation to tick down to 3.4% year-over-year from June’s 3.5%, with core CPI slipping to 2.5% from 2.6%. If those numbers land — or come in below expectations — it would mark the lowest annual CPI reading of 2026 and give the Federal Reserve meaningful cover to shift its posture.
Also on deck: the Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, July retail sales and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading for August on Friday. It’s the kind of data-heavy week that can shift the narrative by Wednesday afternoon.
Bottom Line
The labor market is telling two different stories right now. The BLS says hiring stalled in July — negative payrolls, the kind of number that shows up in recession post-mortems. The NFIB says small business owners are more eager to hire than they’ve been all year, and they’re raising wages to do it. The S&P 500, for its part, just closed at an all-time high, apparently siding with Main Street’s optimism. Wednesday’s CPI print will tell us whether the Fed can afford to listen to the small business owners or has to stay focused on the payroll ledgers.