Daily Brief: Core CPI Surprise Gives Fed Hawks More Ammunition
August CPI held at 3.4% but core rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected — a surprise that pushes rate-hike odds higher. Michigan sentiment forecast at 51.0.
Daily Brief: PPI Hits 5.4% as $100 Oil Keeps the Inflation Pressure On
August producer prices rose 5.4% year-over-year, slightly above forecasts. Core PPI came in below expectations, but with oil above $100 and CPI due...
Daily Brief: PPI and CPI Loom as Oil Tops $96 and the Fed’s Decision Window Opens
PPI Thursday, CPI Friday: the last inflation data before the Fed meets Sept 15-16. Oil at $96, new Canada tariffs, and one question: hike or pause?
Daily Brief: NFIB Small Business Optimism Dips to 98.7 as Sales Weaken and Inflation Creeps Back
Small business optimism cooled to 98.7 in August — still above the 52-year average and ahead of consensus — but weakening sales and resurgent inflation...
Daily Brief: Quits Rate Hits 1.9% as 7.3M Openings and a Worker Shortage Leave the Labor Market Frozen
The quits rate hit 1.9% — the lowest in a decade — as 7.3M openings, a frozen labor force, and 349K needed construction workers reveal a market that...
Daily Brief: Markets Rest on Labor Day — But the Week Ahead Decides the Fed’s Next Move
U.S. markets are closed for Labor Day, but this week delivers the final inflation data before the Fed's September meeting. PPI Thursday, CPI Friday —...
Daily Brief: Jobs Smash Forecasts — Payrolls Surge by 162K in August
August payrolls surged by 162,000 — triple the consensus — as upward revisions erased July's losses. The labor market isn't cracking. Next week's CPI...
Daily Brief: Trade Deficit Hits $88.6B as Import Surge Overwhelms Export Dip
The U.S. trade deficit widened 20% to $88.6B in July as imports surged. Productivity revised up to 1.4%, unit labor costs fell to 1.2%, and job cuts...
Daily Brief: ADP Shows Just 38K Jobs Added in August as Hiring Slows to a Crawl
Private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August — a 9,000 miss below consensus and the slowest month since January. Manufacturing shed 17,000....
Daily Brief: Factory Growth Hits the Brakes — S&P PMI Drops to 53.2 Ahead of Today’s ISM Reveal
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slips to 53.2 as factory expansion cools. ISM and JOLTS data at 10 a.m. could confirm — or complicate — the picture.