The BLS released their JOLTS report today and it doesn’t show what the Federal Reserve expected it to show – a decline in job openings.
The number of job openings was little changed at 10.5 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.1 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits
(4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and
by establishment size class.
Job Openings
On the last business day of November, the number of job openings changed little at 10.5 million. The rate was unchanged at 6.4 percent but was 0.9 percentage points lower than its peak in March 2022. In
November, job openings increased in professional and business services (+212,000) and in nondurable goods manufacturing (+39,000). The number of job openings decreased in finance and insurance (-75,000) and in federal government (-44,000). (See table 1.)
Hires
In November, the number and rate of hires changed little at 6.1 million and 3.9 percent, respectively. Hires increased in health care and social assistance (+74,000). (See table 2.)
Separations
Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
And CNBC is reporting that the Fed has no intention of lowering interest rates in 2023.
The minutes reflected those sentiments, noting that no FOMC members expect rate cuts in 2023, despite market pricing.
CNBC.com
Job opening at all time high, inflation still high and the Fed with no intention of lowering rates means that the stock market will have to reconcile current earnings with higher wage demand and inflation. As we wrote in our stock crash comparison chart recently, we expect a slow dripping drop in the SPY, QQQ and XHB over 2023.
Stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…