Inflation for May came in at a much more tame 4 percent year over year and while that’s great it is still far from the 2% inflation rate the Fed would like to have but there are still hot spots with inflation. From the BLS:
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - MAY 2023 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, followed by an increase in the index for used cars and trucks. The food index increased 0.2 percent in May after being unchanged in the previous 2 months. The index for food at home rose 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.5 percent. The energy index, in contrast, declined 3.6 percent in May as the major energy component indexes fell. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in May, as it did in April and March. Indexes which increased in May include shelter, used cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and personal care. The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for airline fares were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index increased 4.0 percent for the 12 months ending May; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 11.7 percent for the 12 months ending May, and the food index increased 6.7 percent over the last year.
Aside from FOOD, ELECTRICITY, SHELTER & TRANSPORTATION, inflation seems well contained (sarcasm).
Looking at the table, it seems clear that the only reason inflation is lower is because of the drop in energy prices in oil & gas however Saudi has repeatedly warned that if oil prices get too low, they will cut production in an effort to drive the price up.
How will this impact the Fed’s FOMC meeting tomorrow? Many people & pundits are betting on a pause and that may be the outcome but the Fed SHOULD raise rates again on Wednesday. We’ll find out tomorrow so stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…