Flight cancellations have been in the news this week and there is a great deal of finger pointing and blame to go around but the fundamental issue with the airline system boils down to demographics and the aging labor force.
First, let’s take a look at the airline ecosystem which consists of:
- Customers
- Airlines
- Jets/Planes
- Pilots
- Flight Crews
- Aviation Mechanics
- Gate agents and customer service
- Federal Agencies (FAA, TSA, CBP)
- Baggage Handlers
We won’t cover all of these topics because that would turn into a 200 page thesis so we’ll hit a few key ones such as customers, pilots, aviation mechanics and federal agencies.
First, customers – there are plenty of customers and millions more are added each year. This isn’t just a growth in the population but it is also the growth of millions of people retiring and choosing to travel during their retirement. It’s travel to visit friends, family and those once-in-a-lifetime trips and it’s not just in the US, it’s a global phenomenon.
Second, pilots – we’ve known for a while now that there is a shortage of pilots and the remedies being propose imply someone will have “blood on their hands” when reduced training requirements lead to disasters. American Airlines can’t operate 150 regional routes because of pilot shortages but the problems don’t stop there.
Third, aviation mechanics. There is a growing shortage of aviation mechanics. United announced plans to hire 7,000 new mechanics to prevent disruptions caused by poor maintenance of aircraft.
Fourth, FAA flight controllers – this week’s flight disruptions were supposedly caused by a shortage of FAA flight controllers in New York. From CBS News:
In March, the FAA issued a notice warning that an air traffic controller shortage at its New York facility could disrupt summer travel. According to that notice, the agency had reached just 54% of its staffing goal for certified professional controllers at that location — far below the national average. Workers at the facility provide air traffic services for John F. Kennedy International Airport, LaGuardia Airport and Newark Liberty International Airport, according to the FAA.
Source: CBSNews.com
Sadly and ironically, we are just at the beginning of these problems. We have roughly 30 million more boomers that will retire over the next decade and we don’t have enough young people to replace those exiting the labor force. The repeated plan to solve this issue by every industry is to simply “hire more people” but few understand that there aren’t enough people to hire, they simply don’t exist.
We just scratched the surface of the problem here and we would hope someone in the airline industry would be doing some deep philosophical thinking about how to address and resolve this issue because lowering training standards, cutting corners on maintenance and letting planes land themselves on busy runways unassisted is a recipe for disaster.
The one thing that is likely guaranteed to happen is service will continue to decline and prices will continue to go up. You’ll need extra money to fly in the future so stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…