This morning the BLS released the CPI report for December and inflation seems to have spiked back up.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – DECEMBER 2023
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index rose 0.4 percent over the month as increases in the electricity index and the gasoline index more than offset a decrease in the natural gas index. The food index increased 0.2 percent in December, as it did in November. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in December, the same monthly increase as in November. Indexes which increased in December include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care. The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for personal care were among those that decreased over the month.
The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending December, a larger increase than the 3.1-percent increase for the 12 months ending November. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.9 percent over the last 12 months, after rising 4.0 percent over the 12 months ending November. The energy index decreased 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending December, while the food index increased 2.7 percent over the last year.
We are still waiting for the release of December social security snapshot to calculate how many people enrolled in social security for 2023 but we’re already at 1.223 million new recipients which have likely left the labor force and likely another million that retired but haven’t claimed social security benefits yet.
In our post, “The Fed Rate Decision & Déjà vu all over again“, we made a comparison from the 1970s inflation to today’s current inflation patterns and they are eerily similar.
We suspect if the Fed cuts rates anytime this year, inflation will spike but if the Fed keeps rates higher, there will likely be economic dominoes start to fall somewhere. It’s not a great place to be for the Fed but it is a great place to be for a prudent investor planning accordingly so stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…