The weekly jobless claims have finally spiked up to 231k and we are wondering if this is the beginning of the next economic downturn phase. From CNBC:
Initial filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since late August2023 in a potential sign that an otherwise robust labor market is changing.
Jobless claims totaled 231,000 for the week ended May 4, up 22,000 from the previous period and higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 214,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Source: CNBC.com
It’s important to remember that in addition to rising jobless claims, we also have continued attrition as 150k+ people retire from the labor force every month or about (40k+). Every jobless report should also be viewed in conjunction with retirements because those act as self layoffs.
Combining the two numbers and we can estimate 270k to 300k actual attrition in the jobs market. If this trend continues from May thru December then we will have lost 2.1m to 2.4m jobs by the end of the year.
We’ll keep an eye on these developments so stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…