The BEA released the Fed’s preferred inflation measure today CPE and it shows no improvement month over month. From the BEA:
Personal income income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).
The PCE price index decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.5 percent in May and real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.1 percent (tables 3 and 4).
The increase in current-dollar personal income in May primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, and government social benefits (table 2).
The $47.8 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in May reflected an increase of $34.2 billion in spending for services and a $13.6 billion increase in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were health care (led by hospitals), housing and utilities (led by housing), and transportation services (led by air transportation). Within goods, the increase primarily reflected an increase in other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) that was partly offset by a decrease in gasoline and other energy goods. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.5U.
Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $56.4 billion in May (table 2). Personal saving was $806.1 billion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.9 percent (table 1).
Prices
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for May decreased less than 0.1 percent (table 5). Prices for goods decreased 0.4 percent and prices for services increased 0.2 percent. Food prices increased 0.1 percent and energy prices decreased 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for May increased 2.6 percent (table 7). Prices for goods decreased 0.1 percent and prices for services increased 3.9 percent. Food prices increased 1.2 percent and energy prices increased 4.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent from one year ago.
Real PCE
The 0.3 percent increase in real PCE in May reflected an increase of 0.6 percent in spending on goods and an increase of 0.1 percent in spending on services (table 4). Within goods, the largest contributor to the increase was recreational goods and vehicles (led by computer software and accessories). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were transportation services (led by air transportation) and health care (led by outpatient services). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.6U.
Updates to Personal Income and Outlays
Estimates have been updated for January through April. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2017) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided below for March and April.
We are working on building our own economic key performance indicators and will be sharing some information soon so in the meantime stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…