The BLS released a whopper of a CPI report this morning and it showed inflation flaring up again.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - JULY 2025
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home
index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few
major indexes that decreased in July.
The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index
decreased 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.
As expected, anything that is dependent on labor had significant increases in price with a few rare exceptions. The tariff effects may finally be creeping into the inflation reports and next month may confirm that thesis.
The Fed meets next week and everyone is expecting a rate cut but this data has an ominous warning that inflation may spike if things keep moving in the wrong (inflation) direction.
Stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…