The BLS released the August JOLTS report and it shows a continued high elevated job openings of nearly 9 million. From the BLS:
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – AUGUST 2024
The number of job openings was little changed at 8.0 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.3 million. Total separations changed little at 5.0 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) continued to trend down and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class. Job Openings The number of job openings was little changed at 8.0 million on the last business day of August but was down by 1.3 million over the year. The job openings rate, at 4.8 percent, changed little over the month. The number of job openings increased in construction (+138,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+78,000). Job openings decreased in other services (-93,000). (See table 1.) Hires In August, the number and rate of hires changed little at 5.3 million and 3.3 percent, respectively. (See table 2.) Separations Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm. The number of total separations in August changed little at 5.0 million. The total separations rate decreased to 3.1 percent. Total separations increased in professional and business services (+149,000) but decreased in accommodation and food services (-111,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (-25,000). (See table 3.) In August, the number of quits trended down to 3.1 million (-159,000), while the quits rate, at 1.9 percent, changed little. Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-45,000); arts, entertainment, and recreation (-18,000); and private educational services (-11,000). (See table 4.) In August, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.6 million and 1.0 percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges decreased in health care and social assistance (-52,000).
Did the anticipated Fed cut have any impact on jobs? We can’t honestly tell but we’ll keep an eye on it. If rate cuts continue, we expect job hiring to increase, especially for the upcoming holiday season but with a port strike, a mid-east war brewing that may impact oil production and distribution and hurricanes causing havoc on the east coast, anything can happen.
The best thing for us to do now is position with SPY puts, cash, and be simultaneously long, and short the market so stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…