The BLS released the March JOLTS report yesterday and this morning we have the productivity report. First from the BLS on JOLTS:
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – MARCH 2024
The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million while the number of total separations decreased to 5.2 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.
Job Openings
On the last business day of March, the number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million; this measure was down by 1.1 million over the year. The rate was little changed at 5.1 percent in March. Job openings decreased in construction (-182,000) and in finance and insurance (-158,000), but increased in state and local government education (+68,000). (See table 1.)
Hires
In March, the number of hires was little changed at 5.5 million but was down by 455,000 over the year. The rate, at 3.5 percent, changed little in March. (See table 2.)
Separations
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
The number of total separations in March decreased to 5.2 million (-339,000). The rate changed little at 3.3 percent. Over the month, the number of total separations increased in private educational services (+21,000). (See table 3.)
In March, the number of quits was little changed at 3.3 million but was down by 480,000 over the year. The rate was little changed at 2.1 percent in March. The number of quits decreased in other services (-59,000). (See table 4.)
In March, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.5 million and 1.0 percent, respectively. The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-39,000) but increased in private educational services (+18,000). (See table 5.)
The number of other separations was little changed in March at 345,000. (See table 6.)
And now the productivity report:
PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS
First Quarter 2024, Preliminary
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.3 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.9 percent. (See table A1.)
Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 4.7 percent in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting a 5.0-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 0.3-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 1.8 percent over the last four quarters. (See tables A1 and 2.)
And tying it all together we will refer to the last March social security snapshot report.
We have 8.5 million job openings, moderating productivity and increases in social security recipients receiving $119.8 billion dollars each month in spending money adding pressure to goods and services. The retirement numbers will only increase while on the other end we don’t have enough young people to back fill retiring labor.
We are heading to a potential revisit of the 1970’s as we wrote about here.
The only thing left to do is to stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…