The BLS released the Consumer Price Index this morning and while it is better than expected it’s not particularly good news. Below is a quick summary but you can read the full report here.
All Items: Modest month-to-month increases ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% with an unadjusted 12-month increase of 3.4%.
Food:
Overall: Increases mostly under 0.4% per month, leading to a 2.2% increase over 12 months.
Food at Home: Fluctuations with a decrease noted in April 2024 (-0.2%), culminating in a 1.1% annual rise.
Food Away from Home: Consistent increases, peaking at 0.5% in January 2024, with a notable 4.1% increase over 12 months.
Energy:
Overall: Marked decreases in late 2023, followed by increases in early 2024, overall 12-month rise of 2.6%.
Energy Commodities: Significant drops in 2023, but rebounded strongly in early 2024. A mild 12-month increase of 1.1%.
Gasoline: Similar trend with an overall 12-month increase of 1.2%.
Fuel Oil: Major drops, particularly in late 2023, resulting in a 12-month decrease of -0.8%.
Energy Services: Mostly positive changes, except a drop in March 2024, with a significant 12-month rise of 3.6%.
Core CPI (All items less food and energy): Consistently positive monthly changes ranging from 0.2% to 0.4%, with an annual rise of 3.6%.
Commodities less Food and Energy Commodities: Mixed results with some decreases, leading to an overall annual decline of -1.3%.
Services less Energy Services: Consistent growth in most months, peaking at 0.7% in January 2024, and a substantial 12-month increase of 5.3%.Notable Performers:
Transportation Services: High variability but overall large increases, resulting in the highest 12-month rise of 11.2%.
Shelter: Steady increases each month, culminating in a 5.5% increase over 12 months.
Used Cars and Trucks: Experienced significant drops, especially in December 2023 (-3.4%), leading to a sharp 12-month decline of -6.9%.
The reported CPI numbers seem a bit strange given oil averaged about $84.60/bbl for the month of April so perhaps revisions next month will be higher. In either event, inflation is still hot so stay tuned, stay profitable and stay solvent…