There is not a single major U.S. economic data point on the calendar today. No CPI, no jobs report, no Fed speeches. This is the last quiet moment before the data firehose opens — because starting Thursday, a two-week sprint of releases will set the tone for the July 29 FOMC meeting.
Wednesday is the comma between last week’s inflation barrage — CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, PPI dropping for the first time in 11 months, retail sales holding at +0.2%, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index exploding to 41.4 — and a Thursday-Friday stretch that will give us our first read on July business conditions.
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Weekly initial claims drop at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus expects 212,000, up from the prior week’s 208,000. The four-week moving average is the better gauge — it was at 215,000 previously, and any sustained climb north of 220,000 would be the highest since the Iran conflict erupted. With JOLTS still showing 7.6 million openings and payroll growth barely positive, claims are the labor market’s most sensitive early-warning signal.
Friday: Flash PMIs and New Home Sales
S&P Global Flash PMIs (9:45 AM ET) — the first read on July business activity. Manufacturing is expected at 54.4 versus June’s 53.9 final. Services forecast at 51.5 against 51.2. But be careful: June’s flash manufacturing PMI printed at 55.7 before being revised down to 53.9 — a two-point haircut. The employment sub-index will matter more than the headline: manufacturing job cuts hit their fastest pace since May 2020 in June. If that continues, the Fed’s labor-market-is-strong story loses credibility.
New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) — consensus at 606,000, a rebound from May’s 580,000. With the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.69% last week — an 11-month high — don’t expect fireworks. The spring selling season disappointed, and the housing market remains frozen. Existing home sales hit a 30-year low in 2025 and the thaw isn’t coming soon.
Next Week: FOMC, GDP, PCE — the Full Gauntlet
If this week is the appetizer, next week is the main course. Tuesday the 28th brings durable goods, the advance trade balance, and consumer confidence (last at 91.2). Wednesday the 29th is the FOMC decision. No one expects a rate move, but Chair Warsh’s 2:30 PM press conference is where the action is. His Senate testimony last week was unambiguous: inflation is not beaten, the labor market is stable, and rate cuts are not on the near-term table.
Thursday the 30th delivers the Q2 GDP advance estimate alongside personal income, spending, and the PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE is expected at 0.3% month-over-month, 3.4% year-over-year. That is nowhere near the 2% target. Friday wraps with the Employment Cost Index for Q2 — the purest read on wage pressure in the economy — plus Chicago PMI and the final July consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan.
Background Noise: Tariffs, Oil, and the 5% 30-Year
The macro backdrop has not gotten quieter. On July 20, the Trump administration imposed new 50% tariffs on Canadian products. Reuters reports that Yemen’s Houthi militia is threatening to block Saudi shipping — opening a new front in a Middle East conflict that has already pushed Brent crude above $89/bbl this month. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5%, the highest since 2007, and the 10-year is holding at 4.56%. Tariffs, geopolitics, and elevated yields are all pouring fuel on an inflation fire the Fed is still trying to control.
Across the Atlantic, UK inflation provided a rare bright spot: June CPI at 2.6% year-over-year beat the 2.7% consensus and dropped from May’s 2.8%. New Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first major policy move was cutting electricity taxes — a reminder that energy-driven inflation relief can come from policy changes, not just market forces.
Bottom Line
Enjoy the silence. It ends tomorrow. From Thursday morning through the FOMC gavel on July 29, every data point will be parsed through a single question: does this make rate cuts more or less likely? The jobs market, American manufacturing, the housing sector, Q2 GDP, and the PCE are all about to speak, and they will speak in rapid succession. If the numbers confirm what last week’s CPI and PPI suggested — inflation cooling, economy not collapsing — Warsh and company hold steady. If anything cracks, the pressure to ease gets real. The quiet ends now.