Tuesday’s data dump delivered a clean sweep of downside surprises. Consumer confidence slid for the third straight month, new home sales cratered 10.5% from June’s sharply revised-up figure, and Richmond Fed manufacturing activity barely stayed above zero — all missing consensus. The one nominal bright spot? Home prices accelerated to their fastest pace in a year. But strip out inflation, and even that number tells a downbeat story.
The Numbers
Consumer Confidence: 89.4
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.4 in August, missing the 90.3 consensus estimate and sliding from July’s 90.8. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since January’s 84.5. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index weakened, with consumers growing more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. (Source: Conference Board via Investing.com)
New Home Sales: 607,000
New single-family home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from a sharply revised-up 678,000 in June and well below the 620,000 consensus. The June figure got a massive upward bump — originally reported at 628,000, it was revised to 678,000 — which makes the sequential plunge all the more striking. July’s print marks the weakest pace of new home sales since April. (Source: Census Bureau via Trading Economics)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: 4
Factory activity in the Fifth Federal Reserve District slipped to a composite index of 4 in August, down from 5 in July and below the consensus estimate of 7–10. While the shipments index improved from 8 to 11, the overall reading suggests manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic is barely expanding. The employment and new orders sub-indexes were flat to lower. (Source: Richmond Fed via Trading Economics)
Case-Shiller Home Prices: +2.1% YoY
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 2.1% year-over-year in June, accelerating from 1.6% in May and beating the 1.7% consensus. It’s the fastest nominal gain since June 2025. But here’s the cold-water stat: after adjusting for 3.5% inflation, real home prices have now fallen for 13 consecutive months. The regional divergence remains stark — Chicago (+6.9%), New York (+4.8%), and Cleveland (+4.1%) lead the gains, while Seattle (-2.0%), Las Vegas (-1.9%), and Denver (-1.2%) are still in the red. (Source: S&P Cotality via Trading Economics)
Market Reaction
Futures pointed to a higher open on Tuesday morning despite the trio of misses, with the extended pullback in crude oil providing a tailwind for equities. The 10-year Treasury yield held steady near 4.25% as traders weighed the softening data against persistent inflation concerns. The dollar firmed against most majors as the U.S. tightened sanctions on Iran, adding a geopolitical overlay to an already data-heavy session. (Source: RTTNews)
Bottom Line
August is shaping up to be a month where the data keeps saying the same thing: the consumer is getting more cautious, the housing market is stumbling, and manufacturing is running on fumes. The Case-Shiller nominal beat is a mirage — real home prices have been falling for over a year. Tomorrow brings the GDP second estimate and Personal Income/Outlays with the July PCE deflator — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. If PCE shows sticky inflation alongside the softening demand signals we saw today, the “stagflation-lite” narrative that’s been building all month gets another data point.
