Daily Brief: Warsh’s First Jackson Hole Keynote Looms as Claims Slip to 203K and Bond Stress Mounts
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote lands Friday, with inflation at 3.4%, the 30-year at 5.31%, and claims at 203K.
Daily Brief: Oil Drops as Bessent Prepares Iran ‘Economic D-Day,’ But This Week’s Real Fireworks Are Still to Come
Oil slides ahead of Bessent's Iran speech, CFNAI turns negative, and a monster week looms: PCE, GDP, Nvidia earnings, and Jackson Hole all hit within...
Daily Brief: Bond Rout Pauses as Markets Brace for Hawkish FOMC Minutes
Treasury yields retreat from 19-year highs ahead of FOMC minutes that could reveal deep division — three officials already dissented in favor of hiking...
Daily Brief: CPI Cools to 3.4% — September Rate Hike Odds Collapse
CPI eased to 3.4% in July as shelter costs finally decelerated. Markets slashed September rate hike odds to 42%. The Fed just got the breathing room it...
Daily Brief: Payrolls Fall by 23,000 in July — Massive Consensus Miss as Revisions Erase 103K From Spring
U.S. employers cut 23,000 jobs in July when economists expected an 85,000 gain. With 103K in downward revisions to May and June, the labor market is...
Daily Brief: Consumer Confidence Slides to 90.8 as Fed Weighs a Surprise Rate Hike
Consumer confidence fell 1.4 points to 90.8 in July, its third straight monthly decline, as the FOMC meets to decide on rates with a 38% chance of a...
Daily Brief: Jobless Claims Plunge to 187K — 57-Year Low Throws Cold Water on Rate Cuts
Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 — a 57-year low — demolishing the 212,000 consensus. Here's what the historic print means for next week's FOMC.
Daily Brief: The Calm Before the FOMC Storm — One Quiet Week Before the Year’s Biggest Data Dump
Markets face the lightest economic calendar of July as the LEI drops today — then next week unleashes FOMC, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and the employment...
Daily Brief: CPI Plunges to 3.5% as Energy Prices Collapse — Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2020
CPI fell 0.4% in June, the steepest decline since April 2020, with headline inflation dropping to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core prices were flat. Energy was the...
Daily Brief: CPI Week Kicks Off as Brent Tops $78 and Powell’s Testimony Looms
The most consequential week of summer: June CPI drops Wednesday, Powell testifies 90 minutes later, and Brent crude tops $78 on renewed Iran strikes. Here's what to watch.