Wall Street is catching its breath on Monday, with futures pointing to a sharp rebound after last week’s bruising sell-off. The S&P 500 closed out its worst week since last August — five straight sessions in the red — but premarket action suggests traders are buying the dip ahead of a jobs-report-heavy, holiday-shortened week.
The damage report
Last week was ugly for the major averages. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both logged five consecutive losing sessions, the longest such streak since August 2025. Tech and growth names bore the brunt — the Nasdaq shed more than 3% over the five days — while the Dow held relatively steady, buoyed by rotation into value and defensive sectors. For context, the S&P 500 closed Friday near 7,400 after spending much of early June flirting with 7,600.
Monday morning bounce
Futures tell a different story this morning. As of 9:52 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were up 83.75 points (1.13%) to 7,485.50. Nasdaq 100 futures led the charge, surging 449.50 points (1.53%) to 29,817.75. Dow futures added 444 points (0.85%) to 52,653. European markets were mixed — the DAX edged up 0.17% while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.22% — and Asian indices closed mostly lower overnight, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropping 1.76%.
Dallas Fed: manufacturing check-in
The only scheduled U.S. economic release today is the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for June, which dropped at 9:30 AM ET. The general business activity index came in at -1.8, slipping back into contraction territory after May’s tentative recovery to +0.4. It’s a regional indicator — covering factories in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District — and doesn’t move markets on its own, but the dip below zero is worth noting ahead of Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which carries considerably more weight.
The week ahead: jobs, jobs, jobs
If today is the appetizer, the rest of the week is a multi-course meal. Tuesday brings the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for June — a read on household sentiment heading into summer. Wednesday delivers the double-header of ADP’s private payrolls estimate and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, both at 10:00 AM ET. Thursday’s weekly jobless claims will be the last hard-labor-market data point before the main event.
That main event is Friday’s June Employment Situation report from the BLS. Consensus expectations call for roughly 172,000 new jobs, though the range of estimates is wider than usual given mixed signals from recent regional Fed surveys and the softening seen in last week’s claims data. With markets closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday (observed), Thursday will effectively be the last trading session of the week — meaning traders will position ahead of the jobs number rather than react to it in real time.
What we’re watching
- Wage growth in Friday’s report: if average hourly earnings accelerate above 0.3% month-over-month, expect rate-cut hopes to fade fast.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday: the national read could confirm or contradict the Dallas Fed’s contraction signal.
- Treasury yields: the 10-year has been creeping higher; any break above 4.5% could pressure equities, especially growth names.
- Oil: WTI crude ticked up 1.3% to $70.13 this morning — energy sector outperformance has been one of the few bright spots in recent sessions.
It’s a holiday-shortened week, but it won’t be a quiet one. Buckle up.