Daily Brief: Main Street Shrugs Off the Jobs Report — Small Business Optimism Surges to 99.8
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to 99.8 in July, beating consensus by 2.3 points. Hiring plans hit a four-year high — just days after the...
Daily Brief: 61.4% — The Vanishing American Worker and the Participation Crisis Nobody Can Fix
The labor force shrank by 264,000 workers in July while 7.4M job openings sit unfilled. The participation rate hit 61.4% — a near 5.5-year low. This...
Daily Brief: Small Business Hiring Plans Surge 9 Points — Main Street Defies the July Payrolls Miss
NFIB July Jobs Report shows small business hiring plans surging 9 points to 20%, defying Friday's BLS payrolls miss. S&P 500 at all-time highs. CPI...
Daily Brief: Trade Deficit Narrows to $73.3B but Factory Orders Slip — Manufacturing’s Uneven Recovery
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $73.3B in June as factory orders fell 0.3%, missing expectations. The ISM PMI says factories are expanding; the hard...
Daily Brief: 7.6M Job Openings and Nobody to Fill Them — The Labor Shortage That Won’t Quit
With 7.6M job openings, 349K construction workers needed in 2026, and labor force participation at a 5-year low, America's structural labor shortage is...
Daily Brief: ISM Manufacturing Surges to 55.6 as Employment Returns to Expansion — Factories Are Heating Up While Oil Crashes on Iran De-escalation
ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 in July, crushing the 54.0 consensus as factory employment swung back into growth. Oil plunged 7% on Iran peace hopes.
Daily Brief: PCE Prices Actually Fell in June as Wage Growth Holds Steady — The Fed Just Got the Green Light It Needed
PCE prices fell 0.1% in June — the first decline in years — while the Employment Cost Index held at 0.9% for Q2. The Fed just got its best inflation...
Daily Brief: 7.6 Million Job Openings, 61.5% Participation, and a Workforce That’s Getting Older
America has 7.6M job openings and exactly 1 unemployed person per opening. Construction needs 349K workers. Here's why the labor shortage is now a...
Daily Brief: Durable Goods Orders Miss Expectations as Boeing Drag Masks Core Business Spending Strength
June durable goods orders rose just 0.3%, missing the 2.1% consensus. But strip out Boeing and core capex beat at +0.9%. A monster week lies ahead.
Daily Brief: Services PMI Surges to 53.6 as Economy Defies Slowdown Fears
Services PMI surged to 53.6 in July, crushing expectations, while new home sales beat at 628K. Combined with yesterday's 187K jobless claims print, the...