Daily Brief: 61.4% — The Vanishing American Worker and the Participation Crisis Nobody Can Fix
The labor force shrank by 264,000 workers in July while 7.4M job openings sit unfilled. The participation rate hit 61.4% — a near 5.5-year low. This...
Daily Brief: Small Business Hiring Plans Surge 9 Points — Main Street Defies the July Payrolls Miss
NFIB July Jobs Report shows small business hiring plans surging 9 points to 20%, defying Friday's BLS payrolls miss. S&P 500 at all-time highs. CPI...
Daily Brief: Payrolls Fall by 23,000 in July — Massive Consensus Miss as Revisions Erase 103K From Spring
U.S. employers cut 23,000 jobs in July when economists expected an 85,000 gain. With 103K in downward revisions to May and June, the labor market is...
Daily Brief: Jobless Claims Stay Below 200K as Layoffs Hit Two-Year Low — Labor Market Holds Firm Into Jobs Friday
Initial jobless claims rose just 1,000 to 199,000, beating expectations, while layoffs hit a two-year low. The labor market holds firm heading into...
Daily Brief: Trade Deficit Narrows to $73.3B but Factory Orders Slip — Manufacturing’s Uneven Recovery
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $73.3B in June as factory orders fell 0.3%, missing expectations. The ISM PMI says factories are expanding; the hard...
Daily Brief: 7.6M Job Openings and Nobody to Fill Them — The Labor Shortage That Won’t Quit
With 7.6M job openings, 349K construction workers needed in 2026, and labor force participation at a 5-year low, America's structural labor shortage is...
Daily Brief: ISM Manufacturing Surges to 55.6 as Employment Returns to Expansion — Factories Are Heating Up While Oil Crashes on Iran De-escalation
ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 in July, crushing the 54.0 consensus as factory employment swung back into growth. Oil plunged 7% on Iran peace hopes.
Daily Brief: PCE Prices Actually Fell in June as Wage Growth Holds Steady — The Fed Just Got the Green Light It Needed
PCE prices fell 0.1% in June — the first decline in years — while the Employment Cost Index held at 0.9% for Q2. The Fed just got its best inflation...
Daily Brief: GDP Slides to 1.5% as PCE Inflation Cools — Hawkish Fed Dissenters Are Running Out of Arguments
Q2 GDP missed expectations at 1.5%, but PCE prices fell for the first time in months and equipment investment held strong. Plus: the 9-3 FOMC vote that...
Daily Brief: Consumer Confidence Slides to 90.8 as Fed Weighs a Surprise Rate Hike
Consumer confidence fell 1.4 points to 90.8 in July, its third straight monthly decline, as the FOMC meets to decide on rates with a 38% chance of a...